Foxes predict better than hedgehogs

Decisions matter

The worst forecasters were those with great self-confidence who stuck to their big ideas (‘hedgehogs’). They were often worse than the dart-throwing chimp.

The most successful were those who were cautious, humble, numerate, actively open-minded, looked at many points of view, and updated their predictions (‘foxes’).

TV programmes recruit hedgehogs so the more likely an expert was to appear on TV, the less accurate he was.

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