Facts dont change minds

More information seldom changes minds. In fact, it has been seen to trigger the backfire effect, making them dig in even more.

Confirmation bias.

“Faced with a choice between changing one’s mind and proving there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy with the proof.” – J. K. Galbraith

No Bayesian update possible for a zero prior.

“The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of doubt, what is laid before him.” – Leo Tolstoy

People believe what their ‘tribe’ belives.

“People are embraced or condemned according to their beliefs, so one function of the mind may be to hold beliefs that bring the belief-holder the greatest number of allies, protectors, or disciples, rather than beliefs that are most likely to be true.” – Steven Pinker

“If a brain anticipates that it will be rewarded for adopting a particular belief, it’s perfectly happy to do so, and doesn’t much care where the reward comes from — whether it’s pragmatic (better outcomes resulting from better decisions), social (better treatment from one’s peers), or some mix of the two.” – Kevin Simler

Eating together breaks down the mental ‘othering’.

“Sitting down at a table with a group of strangers has the incomparable and odd benefit of making it a little more difficult to hate them with impunity. Prejudice and ethnic strife feed off abstraction. However, the proximity required by a meal – something about handing dishes around, unfurling napkins at the same moment, even asking a stranger to pass the salt – disrupts our ability to cling to the belief that the outsiders who wear unusual clothes and speak in distinctive accents deserve to be sent home or assaulted. For all the large-scale political solutions which have been proposed to salve ethnic conflict, there are few more effective ways to promote tolerance between suspicious neighbours than to force them to eat supper together.” – Alain de Botton

You can’t change your mind if your identity is tied to something. Keep your identity small.

“Always remember that to argue, and win, is to break down the reality of the person you are arguing against. It is painful to lose your reality, so be kind, even if you are right.” – Haruki Murakami

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14 Points for ManagementAI is about making better, faster, cheaper...Abstractions raise tempoAct according to actual circumstancesAgile is the steering wheelAndon cords push decisions down the chainArchitecture sells optionsBayesian stats need simulationBayesianBe decision-driven, not data-drivenBe waterBeware of coordination headwindsBeware the ambiguity effectBlend multiple command systemsBuild and sellBullshit is more dangerous than lies to truthBusinessCarseCharacteristics of Special OpsChristopher AlexanderClimb the identity ladderClosed and open systemsComplexityConceptsContent actionability can be a crutchContradictions reveal answersData ScienceData science is not scientificDebt reduces optionalityDecision contexts can be complicated or complexDecisions matterDeleuzeDemingDo not tamperDon't forecastDon't look at the literature too soonDon't make single point forecastsDon't make type 3 errorsDruckerEinstein's DreamsEquality and freedom are opposedFacts dont change mindsFast languagesFire bullets, then cannonballsForecasting in human affairs is precariousFour laws of combatFoxes predict better than hedgehogsFunnel ExperimentGirardGo beyond ExcelHaikusHourly billing punishes expertiseHow Complex Systems FailHow to Get Startup Ideas, Jared FriedmanHow to Measure AnythingHow to Pitch Your Startup, Kevin HaleHow to Talk to Users, Eric MigikovskyHow to do philosophyHuainanziIOHAIIdentifying the Centre of GravityIllusion of objectivityIn complex contexts, simulateIn complex contexts, use AI as sensorsIncentives matterIncrease your tempoInman's rulesIntelligence Analysis FrameworkJockoJohn BoydKeep it simpleKeep movingKeep your identity smallKnow thyselfLeadershipLevel productionLeverage PointsLibertarianismLinear roadmaps are a lieLittle big foreign phrasesLittle big phrasesMBO ignores processesManeuver warfareManufactured fun is no fun at allManufactured fun is not funMarketing AttributionMarketing is designMessy thought, neat thoughtMilitaryModel Questions vs Actor QuestionsMost things aren't treesMuddle throughName three alternativesNations don't trade with each other, people doNever do great thingsNobody knows anythingNon-systemic thinking is LAMONothing in excessOKRs aid EinheitOKRs are not that greatOODA LoopsOmit needless wordsOperating on the front is the way to use...Oren KlaffPaul Graham et alPeople are not the problemPersuasionPhilip MorganPhilosophyPointersPoints of viewsPolicyPournelle's iron law of bureaucracyProbes over experimentsProductivityProducts are functionsQuestions revealQuotesReality has a suprising amount of detailRecognizing the two times of schedules is central...Repeated games are different from single turn onesRithwikRyan Singer on Christopher AlexanderScreen sharing is the modern GembaSocial networks are like ICOsSolutionismSometimes daily billing makes senseSpeed mattersStart with actionState of Play, 20 questions, VGRStoicismStory Structure 101StrategyStrong opinions, weakly heldSubtractSun TzuSystems over goalsSystemsTeam of TeamsThe five elements of an organization that can...The three languages of politicsThe use of AI can be strategicThere are trade-offs everywhereThere is a robustness-efficiency tradeoffThere will be a last timeThink in publicTiagoTimeToyota Production SystemTrainability wins at scaleTraining helps in calibrations and predictionsUse more Saxon words to be clearVGRVia negativaWanting has layersWhat is Decision EngineeringWhen AI met StrategyWittgenstein's RulerWords matterWrite code, talk to usersWriting heightens consciousnessWritingYCombinator Startup SchoolYou need less dataYou need more data14 Points for ManagementAI is about making better, faster, cheaper...Abstractions raise tempoAct according to actual circumstancesAgile is the steering wheelAnalysis and SynthesisAndon cords push decisions down the chainArchitecture sells optionsBayesian stats need simulationBayesianBe a Greek, not a BabylonianBe decision-driven, not data-drivenBe waterBeware of coordination headwindsBeware the ambiguity effectBlend multiple command systemsBuild and sellBullshit is more dangerous than lies to truthBusinessCRAP framework for dealing with workplace bullshitCarseCausalityCharacteristics of Special OpsChristopher AlexanderClimb the identity ladderClosed and open systemsComplexityConceptsContent actionability can be a crutchContradictions reveal answersData ScienceData science is not scientificDebt reduces optionalityDecision contexts can be complicated or complexDecisions matterDeleuzeDemingDesignDo not tamperDon't forecastDon't look at the literature too soonDon't make single point forecastsDon't make type 3 errorsDruckerEinstein's DreamsEquality and freedom are opposedFacts dont change mindsFast languagesFire bullets, then cannonballsForecasting in human affairs is precariousFour laws of combatFoxes predict better than hedgehogsFunnel ExperimentGirardGo beyond ExcelHaikusHourly billing punishes expertiseHow Complex Systems FailHow to Get Startup Ideas, Jared FriedmanHow to Measure AnythingHow to Pitch Your Startup, Kevin HaleHow to Talk to Users, Eric MigikovskyHow to do philosophyHuainanziIOHAIIdentifying the Centre of GravityIllusion of objectivityIn complex contexts, simulateIn complex contexts, use AI as sensorsIncentives matterIncrease your tempoInman's rulesIntelligence Analysis FrameworkJTBD by data teamsJockoJohn BoydKeep it simpleKeep movingKeep your identity smallKnow thyselfLeadershipLevel productionLeverage PointsLibertarianismLinear roadmaps are a lieLittle big foreign phrasesLittle big phrasesLoreMBO ignores processesManeuver warfareManufactured fun is no fun at allManufactured fun is not funMarketing AttributionMarketing is designMessy thought, neat thoughtMilitaryModel Questions vs Actor QuestionsMost things aren't treesMuddle throughName three alternativesNations don't trade with each other, people doNever do great thingsNobody knows anythingNon-systemic thinking is LAMONothing in excessOKRs aid EinheitOKRs are not that greatOODA LoopsOmit needless wordsOperating on the front is the way to use...Oren KlaffPaul Graham et alPeople are not the problemPersuasionPhilip MorganPhilosophyPointersPoints of viewsPolicyPournelle's iron law of bureaucracyProbes over experimentsProductivityProducts are functionsQuestions revealQuotesReality has a suprising amount of detailRecognizing the two times of schedules is central...Repeated games are different from single turn onesRethink design thinkingRithwikRyan Singer on Christopher AlexanderSailing over rowingScreen sharing is the modern GembaSocial networks are like ICOsSolutionismSometimes daily billing makes senseSpeed mattersStart with actionState of Play, 20 questions, VGRStoicismStory Structure 101StrategyStrong opinions, weakly heldSubtractSun TzuSystems over goalsSystemsTeam of TeamsThe Expert's TrilemmaThe five elements of an organization that can...The three languages of politicsThe use of AI can be strategicThere are trade-offs everywhereThere is a robustness-efficiency tradeoffThere will be a last timeThink in publicTiagoTimeTo think is to forgetToyota Production SystemTrainability wins at scaleTraining helps in calibrations and predictionsUse more Saxon words to be clearVGRVia negativaWanting has layersWhat is Decision EngineeringWhen AI met StrategyWittgenstein's RulerWords matterWrite code, talk to usersWriting heightens consciousnessWritingYCombinator Startup SchoolYou need less dataYou need more data