Act according to actual circumstances

It is easy to give in to established patterns of thought. While it is often wasteful1, an accurate assessment to spot deviations in the current environment is often needed to adapt. Because Reality has a suprising amount of detail.

Observations trump hypotheses. One black swan invalidates the claim of only white swans. I am unable to locate the quote, but Confucius said something that amounts to not wishing for the world to be different but to act knowing how it is.

John Boyd stressed the importance of orienting in the OODA Loops, which of course depends on observing. In Creation and Destruction, he brings together Gödel, Heisenberg, and thermodynamics to make the claim that we must be constantly destroying mental models to create new ones.

One thing that stands in the way of letting the observations make their way to the brain is identity. Keep your identity small

Having said that, the Whitehead quote1 can be seen as pushing the idea of implicit guidance in the OODA loops. The more that can be done without explicit thought the more tempo we can gather.

References:

  1. “It is a profoundly erroneous truism, repeated by all copy-books and by eminent people when they are making speeches, that we should cultivate the habit of thinking of what we are doing. The precise opposite is the case. ==Civilization advances by extending the number of important operations which we can perform without thinking about them.== Operations of thought are like cavalry charges in a battle — they are strictly limited in number, they require fresh horses, and must only be made at decisive moments.” — Alfred North Whitehead, An Introduction to Mathematics, 1911 ↩ ↩2

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14 Points for ManagementAI is about making better, faster, cheaper...Abstractions raise tempoAct according to actual circumstancesAgile is the steering wheelAndon cords push decisions down the chainArchitecture sells optionsBayesian stats need simulationBayesianBe decision-driven, not data-drivenBe waterBeware of coordination headwindsBeware the ambiguity effectBlend multiple command systemsBuild and sellBullshit is more dangerous than lies to truthBusinessCarseCharacteristics of Special OpsChristopher AlexanderClimb the identity ladderClosed and open systemsComplexityConceptsContent actionability can be a crutchContradictions reveal answersData ScienceData science is not scientificDebt reduces optionalityDecision contexts can be complicated or complexDecisions matterDeleuzeDemingDo not tamperDon't forecastDon't look at the literature too soonDon't make single point forecastsDon't make type 3 errorsDruckerEinstein's DreamsEquality and freedom are opposedFacts dont change mindsFast languagesFire bullets, then cannonballsForecasting in human affairs is precariousFour laws of combatFoxes predict better than hedgehogsFunnel ExperimentGirardGo beyond ExcelHaikusHourly billing punishes expertiseHow Complex Systems FailHow to Get Startup Ideas, Jared FriedmanHow to Measure AnythingHow to Pitch Your Startup, Kevin HaleHow to Talk to Users, Eric MigikovskyHow to do philosophyHuainanziIOHAIIdentifying the Centre of GravityIllusion of objectivityIn complex contexts, simulateIn complex contexts, use AI as sensorsIncentives matterIncrease your tempoInman's rulesIntelligence Analysis FrameworkJockoJohn BoydKeep it simpleKeep movingKeep your identity smallKnow thyselfLeadershipLevel productionLeverage PointsLibertarianismLinear roadmaps are a lieLittle big foreign phrasesLittle big phrasesMBO ignores processesManeuver warfareManufactured fun is no fun at allManufactured fun is not funMarketing AttributionMarketing is designMessy thought, neat thoughtMilitaryModel Questions vs Actor QuestionsMost things aren't treesMuddle throughName three alternativesNations don't trade with each other, people doNever do great thingsNobody knows anythingNon-systemic thinking is LAMONothing in excessOKRs aid EinheitOKRs are not that greatOODA LoopsOmit needless wordsOperating on the front is the way to use...Oren KlaffPaul Graham et alPeople are not the problemPersuasionPhilip MorganPhilosophyPointersPoints of viewsPolicyPournelle's iron law of bureaucracyProbes over experimentsProductivityProducts are functionsQuestions revealQuotesReality has a suprising amount of detailRecognizing the two times of schedules is central...Repeated games are different from single turn onesRithwikRyan Singer on Christopher AlexanderScreen sharing is the modern GembaSocial networks are like ICOsSolutionismSometimes daily billing makes senseSpeed mattersStart with actionState of Play, 20 questions, VGRStoicismStory Structure 101StrategyStrong opinions, weakly heldSubtractSun TzuSystems over goalsSystemsTeam of TeamsThe five elements of an organization that can...The three languages of politicsThe use of AI can be strategicThere are trade-offs everywhereThere is a robustness-efficiency tradeoffThere will be a last timeThink in publicTiagoTimeToyota Production SystemTrainability wins at scaleTraining helps in calibrations and predictionsUse more Saxon words to be clearVGRVia negativaWanting has layersWhat is Decision EngineeringWhen AI met StrategyWittgenstein's RulerWords matterWrite code, talk to usersWriting heightens consciousnessWritingYCombinator Startup SchoolYou need less dataYou need more data14 Points for ManagementAI is about making better, faster, cheaper...Abstractions raise tempoAct according to actual circumstancesAgile is the steering wheelAnalysis and SynthesisAndon cords push decisions down the chainArchitecture sells optionsBayesian stats need simulationBayesianBe a Greek, not a BabylonianBe decision-driven, not data-drivenBe waterBeware of coordination headwindsBeware the ambiguity effectBlend multiple command systemsBuild and sellBullshit is more dangerous than lies to truthBusinessCRAP framework for dealing with workplace bullshitCarseCausalityCharacteristics of Special OpsChristopher AlexanderClimb the identity ladderClosed and open systemsComplexityConceptsContent actionability can be a crutchContradictions reveal answersData ScienceData science is not scientificDebt reduces optionalityDecision contexts can be complicated or complexDecisions matterDeleuzeDemingDesignDo not tamperDon't forecastDon't look at the literature too soonDon't make single point forecastsDon't make type 3 errorsDruckerEinstein's DreamsEquality and freedom are opposedFacts dont change mindsFast languagesFire bullets, then cannonballsForecasting in human affairs is precariousFour laws of combatFoxes predict better than hedgehogsFunnel ExperimentGirardGo beyond ExcelHaikusHourly billing punishes expertiseHow Complex Systems FailHow to Get Startup Ideas, Jared FriedmanHow to Measure AnythingHow to Pitch Your Startup, Kevin HaleHow to Talk to Users, Eric MigikovskyHow to do philosophyHuainanziIOHAIIdentifying the Centre of GravityIllusion of objectivityIn complex contexts, simulateIn complex contexts, use AI as sensorsIncentives matterIncrease your tempoInman's rulesIntelligence Analysis FrameworkJTBD by data teamsJockoJohn BoydKeep it simpleKeep movingKeep your identity smallKnow thyselfLeadershipLevel productionLeverage PointsLibertarianismLinear roadmaps are a lieLittle big foreign phrasesLittle big phrasesLoreMBO ignores processesManeuver warfareManufactured fun is no fun at allManufactured fun is not funMarketing AttributionMarketing is designMessy thought, neat thoughtMilitaryModel Questions vs Actor QuestionsMost things aren't treesMuddle throughName three alternativesNations don't trade with each other, people doNever do great thingsNobody knows anythingNon-systemic thinking is LAMONothing in excessOKRs aid EinheitOKRs are not that greatOODA LoopsOmit needless wordsOperating on the front is the way to use...Oren KlaffPaul Graham et alPeople are not the problemPersuasionPhilip MorganPhilosophyPointersPoints of viewsPolicyPournelle's iron law of bureaucracyProbes over experimentsProductivityProducts are functionsQuestions revealQuotesReality has a suprising amount of detailRecognizing the two times of schedules is central...Repeated games are different from single turn onesRethink design thinkingRithwikRyan Singer on Christopher AlexanderSailing over rowingScreen sharing is the modern GembaSocial networks are like ICOsSolutionismSometimes daily billing makes senseSpeed mattersStart with actionState of Play, 20 questions, VGRStoicismStory Structure 101StrategyStrong opinions, weakly heldSubtractSun TzuSystems over goalsSystemsTeam of TeamsThe Expert's TrilemmaThe five elements of an organization that can...The three languages of politicsThe use of AI can be strategicThere are trade-offs everywhereThere is a robustness-efficiency tradeoffThere will be a last timeThink in publicTiagoTimeTo think is to forgetToyota Production SystemTrainability wins at scaleTraining helps in calibrations and predictionsUse more Saxon words to be clearVGRVia negativaWanting has layersWhat is Decision EngineeringWhen AI met StrategyWittgenstein's RulerWords matterWrite code, talk to usersWriting heightens consciousnessWritingYCombinator Startup SchoolYou need less dataYou need more data